President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ambition of becoming the leader of Islamic world faced a severe setback in Kazakhstan when the Central Asian Republic chose to seek help from Russia to deal with public outrage against rising fuel prices. The peaceful protest was hijacked by militant groups with links to Pakistan and Turkey.

Turkey, close to the sacked President Nursultan Nazarbayev, has been dreaming of turning Kazakhstan away from the Eurasian idea and make it part of the so-called Aksakal of the Turkic world. During Nazarbayev reign, trade prospered between the two countries with Ankara tapping energy and mineral wealth of Kazakhstan. Trade turnover touched $2 billion.

As a part of his ‘Enterprise -International Mosques’, President Erdogan has launched a massive programme to build mosques across the world, Kazakhstan including.

“It is Erdogan’s most ambitious and visible programme for garnering global influence,” according to observers.  This state-sponsored project is run by the Directorate of Religious Affairs - Diyanet. It is similar to the pre-2001Saudi programme,  which facilitated rapid expansion of mosques all over the world. Diyanet manages 80,000 mosques at home.

Another Erdogan venture to realise his ambition of leadership of the Islamic world is the Organization of Turkic States. This Istanbul-based outfit brings together former Soviet states of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan with which Turkey shares ethnic and linguistic ties.  And it has given wings to the Turkey President’s idea of a Turkic NATO.  Though this Erdogan version of NATO is still a pipe dream, Turkey has seen rapid growth in military ties with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in recent times.

The Alnaskar dreams of Turkey strongman crashed when curtains came down on the three-decade long rule of Nazarbayev amidst wide spread anti-government riots three years ago.   Yet Erdogan persisted with his plans pinning his hopes on   Nazarbayev’s avatar as chairman of the Security Council.  The dawn of New Year 2022 saw protests fueled by petrol prices. And the dismissal of the ‘Elbasy’ (Leader of the Nation) as Nazarbayev styled himself punctured the Ankara balloon, again.

Nazarbayev’s close friend and his successor, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, heaped scorn on the self-styled new messiah of the Islamic world by turning to President Putin for help to buy peace at home.   

Erdogan was waiting for such a request since he had displayed his muscle by sending troops to Syria. Moreover, he had invested so much money and time in Kazakhstan besides giving teeth to the local Islamists. “He has been considering Kazakhstan as his pocket borough, and his gateway to competing for influence in the Russia dominated Central Asian region. The turn of events has made him crestfallen,” remarks a perceptive observer of Ankara’s Islamist binge.

Well, Turkey was caught off-guard by the riots and rapid deployment of Russian troops in Kazakhstan under the banner of Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO).    So, what next, Erdogan?

Geo-strategic analysts aver that miffed by the setback Turkey may unleash the Islamist elements to bleed Kazakhstan in the way Pakistan pump-primed Taliban in Afghanistan to the dismay of the United States for over two decades. Islamabad will be too glad to impart a lesson or two in managing Islamist insurgency with denial mode in place.

This prognosis is based on the fact that Turkey has considerable clout among Kazakh mafia as also Kazakh militants who were allowed free passage to Syria. All of them could create trouble for Kazakh President Tokayev once the Russian forces return home. (POREG)

—-by Valentin Popescu

The writer is a London based Poreg commentator