By Valentin Popescu*

Slowly, but certainly, resistance is building up against Taliban, the Sunni hardliners who have captured power in Afghanistan. Giving fillip to the cautious moves from outside that country are the Tajiks and the Iranians.

Although Tajiks are predominantly (95 percent) Sunni of Hanafi school of Islam, with barely three percent Shias, and Iran is predominantly Shia, religion appears to have been set aside to protect the Persian language and culture that has come under threat in Afghanistan and thanks to the resurgence of the Taliban, in the entire region, including Pakistan.

Beyond these moves coming from what is culturally called the Nowroz belt, ethnic affinities are also at work. Tajiks and Hazaras of central and western Afghanistan (with significant presence in Pakistan) have been targeted by Sunni extremists in the region. Resistance to the Taliban is their fight for survival. It is also an effort to protect various Sufi sects that by their very ideology are against sectarian violence and extremism.

Only Tajikistan is getting active so far while the Uzbeks (who are Turkic, not Persian) have not shown any gesture. In any case, both are deeply dependent upon Russia, especially in military matters. And Russia,combining with China (both have Sunni Muslim populations that are hostile), is keen on propping up the Afghan Taliban to marginalize the United States and NATO allies. Both are mounting diplomatic pressures on the world community to help the Taliban on humanitarian grounds.

Low-key so far, it may become a long-drawn conflict, depending upon how various players deal with Taliban. Of them, Iran has a record of supporting the Houthis of Yemen for over five years.

The fact of the matter is that none in the vast region wants to take up direct cudgels with the Taliban who can target their ethnic minorities at will and get the Sunni groups in each of these countries to cause trouble.

Tajikistan that has emerged as the nerve centre of resistance has disavowed any connection. It has denied the presence of Ahmed Masoud, son of Ahmed Shah Masoud and former Afghan Vice President, Amrullah Saleh. Dushanbe says they were there only briefly for talks, but have since
left.

Credible reports are that they are moving between Dushanbe and Tehran. They met Ismail Khan, the long-time Shia fighter from Herat in Iran.

But the snag, diplomatically, is that Iran has taken no public stand. Iran has been part of the diplomatic moves by China and Russia that are helpful of the Taliban, mainly out of hostility against the US and its longimposed sanctions.

Physical threat from the Taliban is maximum for Tajikistan even without its playing any role in the resistance to the Taliban. It has a long border where, for the first time since declaring independence in 1991, it has rushed 20,000 soldiers and has called its military reservists back on duty. A high alert is enforced along difficult-to-defend mountainous terrain. But the Tajik army is the weakest in the region, already troubled by the Islamists at home.

Tajikistan is a transit stop for most of the drug traffic from Afghanistan to Russia and Europe, and the country has suffered numerous terrorist attacks in the last few years.

Yet, Dushanbe is more ready to take some risks than others in the region. Its long-time President Emomali Rakhmanov “is counting on boosting popularity, both at home and abroad,” a study by CarnegieMoscowcentre.org says.

The Central Asian nation has assumed the role of the Taliban’s main adversary, allegedly supporting the remnants of the Afghan opposition forces (though Dushanbe denies this),” it says.

President Rakhmon has returned to the topic of “Afghanistan’s misfortunes under the Taliban in practically every recent public speech he has made, even those unrelated to foreign policy. At international meetings and forums, Rakhmon has repeatedly said that Tajikistan will
not recognize any other government formed in Afghanistan through oppression and persecution, without considering the position of the entire Afghan people, especially all of its ethnic minorities.

According to Rakhmanov, ethnic Tajiks comprise over 46 percent of Afghanistan’s population, though most estimates hover around 20 percent.

Tajikistan is a small, weak nation. Following the Taliban entry in Kabul, Tajikistan was the only country in the region that promised to take in up to 100,000 Afghan refugees. Rakhmon also posthumously awarded the prestigious Order of Ismoili Somoni to ethnicTajik anti-Taliban leaders: Ahmad Shah Massoud (senior) and Afghanistan’s former president Burhanuddin Rabbani.

There have been persistent rumours that Tajikistan is also aiding the remaining anti-Taliban forces: the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan in Panjshir Province, where over 98 percent of the population is ethnic Tajiks. It’s the only territory that the Taliban haven’t yet taken over completely. The Taliban have responded by saying they will not tolerate “interference in Afghanistan’s internal affairs” and dispatched fighters to the Tajik border.

Tajikistan is exercising extreme caution, even sending back Afghan refugees for fear of having to host them permanently. It has also refrained from severing trade relations with the new Afghan government, even though Afghanistan accounts for just 1.5 percent of the country’s total trade volume.

Electricity, Tajikistan’s main export item to Afghanistan, is still being supplied across the border, even though the Taliban can’t pay for it at the moment, and has already accrued over $11 million in debt.

Yet, there are chances of border flare-ups. Rakhmon, who calls himself “the guardian and patron of all Tajiks in the world”, personally visited the country’s border regions, addressed the troops, and reviewed a military parade.

“Despite Rakhmon’s harsh rhetoric, he and other high-ranking Tajik officials are acting with extreme caution and avoid direct references to the Taliban, limiting their criticism to the fact that Afghanistan’s new government is not inclusive enough of the country’s ethnic minorities.“… it’s too early to say that Tajikistan and Afghanistan are on the brink of war,” the Carnegie study says.

*- The writer is London based blogger with interest in South Asian issues